Since the start of the lockdown following the Covid-19, Paris School of Business has offered students and staff live lectures led from our faculty.
The following webinar has recently been delivered to Paris School of Business’s community and is made available to all public on “Life after COVID-19. Scenarios for the Future.”
The unknown is associated with uncertainty. Designing the future is not about building precise forecasts.
Designing the future is a way of thinking that broadens the horizon and proactively seeks possible development solutions for today.
The future of a given industry is born on its edge, often far beyond our industry. Signals are not trends, because trends appear much later, when the signals of change get saturated. Signals are a barely visible sign that something is happening. Signal is something important that can (but does not have to) significantly affect reality or establish future trend.
In this extremely complexed time, we are introducing future planning models and scenario construction models. You will learn what are the 4 scenarios that can determine the future and how to plan it in different perspective zones of thinking about the future.
In the context of the future, there is never a single scenario. There are always four:
- growth (the future is better than what I expect),
- breakdown (the future is worse than I expect),
- constraint (the future is just what I expect) and
- transformation (the future is different than what I expect).
And it is not that one scenario excludes the other. Most often several of them coexist, and can be realized simultaneously.
David Kalisz, PhD is an Associated Professor at Paris School of Business. The views expressed here are solely his own.